Nature Climate Change Contents September 2013 Volume 3 Number 9 pp 765-847

TABLE OF CONTENTS September 2013 Volume 3, Issue 9 Editorials Correspondence Commentaries News Feature Snapshot Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Corrections Perspectives Letters Erratum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Call for series of workshops on Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services The U.S. Nat. Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center SESYNC, the German Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ and the German Synthesis Centre for Biodiversity Sciences sDiv offer: Joint funding for synthesis Projects that bring together data, ideas, theories, or models at the interface of biodiversity and ESS.   Deadline: Oct 9, 2013 Details: http://www.sesync.org/bio-ess   Advertisement The double blind option Concerned about referee bias? During submission to Nature Climate Change, consider choosing the double-blind peer review option so that author information is not shared with reviewers. Some background on our reasons for offering this choice can be found in a recent Nature Climate Change Editorial. We also provide a checklist to help authors to anonymize their papers.     Editorials Top Carbon fix p765 doi:10.1038/nclimate1998 Lessons from addiction may help to transform our high-carbon lifestyle. Water forecasts p765 doi:10.1038/nclimate2005 The effect of climate change on precipitation and flooding is of global concern. Correspondence Top Field tests of solar climate engineering p766 Stefan Schäfer, Peter J. Irvine, Anna-Maria Hubert, David Reichwein, Sean Low, Harald Stelzer, Achim Maas and Mark G. Lawrence doi:10.1038/nclimate1987 Commentaries Top Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years pp767 - 769 John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett and Francis W. Zwiers doi:10.1038/nclimate1972 Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability. Uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments pp769 - 771 Richard W. Katz, Peter F. Craigmile, Peter Guttorp, Murali Haran, Bruno Sansó and Michael L. Stein doi:10.1038/nclimate1980 Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change. Powering Los Angeles with renewable energy pp771 - 775 Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa, Varun Sivaram and Ron Nichols doi:10.1038/nclimate1985 The City of Los Angeles is nearly two thirds of the way towards its goal of generating a third of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020; cities around the world can glean valuable technical, economic and political lessons from its experience. News Feature Top The pleasure principle pp776 - 777 Elisabeth Jeffries doi:10.1038/nclimate1994 Lessons from the treatment of addiction may help to change peoples' awareness of nature. Snapshot Top Flooding costs p778 Bronwyn Wake doi:10.1038/nclimate1997 Policy Watch Top The nuclear paradox pp779 - 780 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate1991 Can subsidies for new nuclear power plants be justified as part of a low-carbon energy policy? Sonja van Renssen investigates. Research Highlights Top Ecological Impacts: Genetic pinch | Carbon accounting: Soil in the wind | Extreme events: State of knowledge | Environmental Economics: Food miles debated | Human impacts: Climate-driven conflicts News and Views Top Game theory: Building up cooperation pp782 - 783 Alessandro Tavoni doi:10.1038/nclimate1962 Can we achieve the ambitious mitigation targets needed to avert dangerous global warming? Research now shows that local sanctioning institutions may succeed where global agreements fall short. See also: Letter by Vítor Vasconcelos et al. Hydrology: Seasonal rain changes pp783 - 784 Praveen Kumar doi:10.1038/nclimate1996 The effects of climate change on the extremes of rainfall and the associated floods and droughts have been well documented. Analysis now provides evidence that rainfall seasonality is also changing in some parts of the tropics, which has important implications for ecological as well as human systems. See also: Letter by Xue Feng et al. Agricultural Impacts: Multi-model yield projections pp784 - 786 Timothy R. Carter doi:10.1038/nclimate1995 Using model ensembles for simulating the responses of future crop yields to climate change offers the prospect of more reliable projections, but requires sustained international collaboration and exchange of high-quality data for model testing. See also: Letter by S. Asseng et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Postdoctoral Fellow in Climate Change - Plant Ecophysiology University of Western Sydney Canada Research Chair Tier 2 - Integrated Coastal and Ocean Management Dalhousie University Research Fellow- Heat Transfer / Solar Energy RMIT University Assistant Professor University of Washington Research Staff Associate -- Socioeconomic Studies of Climate Impacts in Urban Settings Columbia University More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT Next steps in climate science 02.10.13 London, UK More science events from Corrections Top Correction p786 doi:10.1038/nclimate1984 Correction p786 doi:10.1038/nclimate1992 Correction p786 doi:10.1038/nclimate1993 Perspectives Top Coastal adaptation with ecological engineering pp787 - 791 So-Min Cheong, Brian Silliman, Poh Poh Wong, Bregje van Wesenbeeck, Choong-Ki Kim and Greg Guannel doi:10.1038/nclimate1854 Climate change poses both practical and theoretical problems for coastal managers, who have to make and implement plans that cope with a highly uncertain, and therefore inherently risky, future. This Perspective uses three examples of ecological engineering — marshes, mangroves, and oyster reefs — to illustrate the synergistic effects and benefits of this approach. First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass pp792 - 796 Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Marcus Lindner, Pieter J. Verkerk, Katja Gunia, Paola Deda, Roman Michalak and Giacomo Grassi doi:10.1038/nclimate1853 Since the 1950s—after centuries of stock decline and deforestation—European forests started to recover, becoming a persistent carbon sink. The effect was projected to continue for decades, however there are early signs that the sink is saturating. This Perspective calls for a timely reaction from policymakers and forest managers to sustain European forests and thus the carbon sink. Letters Top A bottom-up institutional approach to cooperative governance of risky commons pp797 - 801 Vítor V. Vasconcelos, Francisco C. Santos and Jorge M. Pacheco doi:10.1038/nclimate1927 Climate change cooperation has been limited by the lack of sanctioning mechanisms to deal with those who fail to abide by agreements. Research now shows that a bottom-up process, in which parties create local institutions that punish free-riders, promotes widespread cooperation as opposed to the traditional top-down approach that builds global institutions. Future flood losses in major coastal cities pp802 - 806 Stephane Hallegatte, Colin Green, Robert J. Nicholls and Jan Corfee-Morlot doi:10.1038/nclimate1979 Flood losses in coastal cities will rise due to increasing populations and assets. Research now quantifies average losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Estimated at approximately US$6 billion in 2005, average annual losses could increase to US$52 billion by 2050 on the basis of projected socio-economic change alone. If climate change and subsidence are also considered, current protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses. Anthropogenic impact on Earth’s hydrological cycle pp807 - 810 Peili Wu, Nikolaos Christidis and Peter Stott doi:10.1038/nclimate1932 The impact of climate change on the global hydrological cycle is unclear, with land precipitation and river discharges not increasing as expected. This discrepancy is investigated and tropospheric aerosols are found to have weakened the hydrological cycle between the 1950s and 1980s. The increase in greenhouse gases since the 1980s strengthened the cycle, indicating a further increase in precipitation if the current trend continues. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics pp811 - 815 Xue Feng, Amilcare Porporato and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe doi:10.1038/nclimate1907 Climate change is altering the seasonal distribution, interannual variability and overall magnitude of precipitation. A new global measure of precipitation seasonality is proposed, and application of this method to observations from the tropics shows that increases in variability were accompanied by shifts in seasonal magnitude, timing and duration. Global flood risk under climate change pp816 - 821 Yukiko Hirabayashi, Roobavannan Mahendran, Sujan Koirala, Lisako Konoshima, Dai Yamazaki, Satoshi Watanabe, Hyungjun Kim and Shinjiro Kanae doi:10.1038/nclimate1911 Flood risk is expected to increase as the climate warms. This study, for the first time, uses several climate models to estimate the global risk of flooding at the end of the century. Projections show a large increase in flood frequency in some areas, whereas other regions can expect a decrease. Vulnerability is dependent on the degree of warming and the interannual variability in precipitation. El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries pp822 - 826 Jinbao Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Edward R. Cook, Mariano S. Morales, Duncan A. Christie, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Fahu Chen, Rosanne D’Arrigo, Anthony M. Fowler, Xiaohua Gou and Keyan Fang doi:10.1038/nclimate1936 The El Niño/Southern Oscillation exhibits considerable natural variability on interdecadal to centennial timescales making it difficult to understand how climate change affects it. A reconstruction now shows there has been anomalously high activity in the late twentieth century, relative to the past seven centuries. This is suggestive of a response to global warming, and will provide constraints to improve climate models and projections. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change pp827 - 832 S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, A. C. Ruane, K. J. Boote, P. J. Thorburn, R. P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, P. K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, A. J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L. A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R. C. Izaurralde, K. C. Kersebaum, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O’Leary, J. E. Olesen, T. M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M. A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, D. Wallach, J. W. White, J. R. Williams and J. Wolf doi:10.1038/nclimate1916 Large standardized model intercomparison projects enable the quantification of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change. One of the largest studies so far indicates that individual crop models are able to simulate wheat yields accurately under a range of environments, but that differences between crop models are a major source of uncertainty. Woody plant encroachment facilitated by increased precipitation intensity pp833 - 837 Andrew Kulmatiski and Karen H. Beard doi:10.1038/nclimate1904 Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of precipitation in many regions. Experiments show that small increases in precipitation intensity, but not total amount, can lead to deeper penetration of water into the soil, leading to greater woody plant growth at the cost of grasses in a savannah system. Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production pp838 - 842 Stephanie Pau, Elizabeth M. Wolkovich, Benjamin I. Cook, Christopher J. Nytch, James Regetz, Jess K. Zimmerman and S. Joseph Wright doi:10.1038/nclimate1934 Competing influences on tropical forest productivity, such as changes in temperature, light and precipitation, can be difficult to disentangle. Now, analysis of how clouds, temperature and precipitation affect flower production in two contrasting tropical forests indicates that temperature is a critically important variable for tropical forest flower production. Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification pp843 - 847 S. Kawaguchi, A. Ishida, R. King, B. Raymond, N. Waller, A. Constable, S. Nicol, M. Wakita and A. Ishimatsu doi:10.1038/nclimate1937 Little is known about the sensitivity of Antarctic krill, a key part of the food chain, to ocean acidification. A circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success is presented for projected ocean acidification levels. Important krill recruitment habitats are likely to become high-risk this century, with the possibility of collapse of the krill population by 2300 without CO2 emissions mitigation. Erratum Top Untangling the confusion around land carbon science and climate change mitigation policy p847 Brendan Mackey, I. Colin Prentice, Will Steffen, Joanna I. 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